TREND-CYCLE MODELING OF TURKISH INFLATION: DOES STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY PLAY A ROLE?

Trend Inflation and the Unemployment Volatility Puzzle

I show that the combination of small positive trend inflation with staggered prices may account for the large relative volatilities found in US labor market data. The model does not have any wage rigidity and is hit only by an aggregate technology shock. The calibration procedure uses standard parameter values. Controlling for the sample average of the CPI inflation rate and the degree of price...

Relative Price Volatility: What Role Does the Border Play?

We reexamine the effect of the U.S./Canadian border on integration of markets. The paper updates work from our earlier paper, Engel and Rogers (1996). We consider alternative measures of deviations from the law of one price. We pay special attention to the effect of the U.S.-Canada free trade agreement on market integration. Our conclusions are unchanged: markets in the U.S. and Canada are more...

Asset modeling, stochastic volatility and stochastic correlation

Asset prices are typically modeled with the geometric Brownian motion (GBM). Correlation between the assets is exogenously modeled and then ad-hoc assigned to the asset prices. This is conceptually and mathematically unsatisfying. We create a new, simple approach, which simultaneously models stochastic volatility and stochastic correlation. This approach replicates the realworld volatility – co...

Bayesian semiparametric stochastic volatility modeling

This paper extends the existing fully parametric Bayesian literature on stochastic volatility to allow for more general return distributions. Instead of specifying a particular distribution for the return innovations, nonparametric Bayesian methods are used to flexibly model the distribution’s skewness and kurtosis while volatility dynamics follow a parametric structure. Our Bayesian approach p...

A Brief Introduction to Stochastic Volatility Modeling